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【研究报告】锌:深蹲起跳,反弹空间指向节后平台
更新时间:2020-03-11 15:52 来源:国投安信期货 肖静   浏览次数:4168 | 文字大小:
摘要:  周一,“一波未平,一波又起”,已经跌破2000美元的伦锌,受原油跳水拖累,下滑到1913美元新低,而沪锌困于长期基本面熊市空配惯性,主力锌价直接以15235元/吨跌停开盘。

  周一,“一波未平,一波又起”,已经跌破2000美元的伦锌,受原油跳水拖累,下滑到1913美元新低,而沪锌困于长期基本面熊市空配惯性,主力锌价直接以15235元/吨跌停开盘。夜盘期间,我们非常担心对风险定价更敏感的伦铜,在失守5500美元关键位置后,对锌价施加新的压力。从结果看,伦铜暂时顶住,周二沪锌反弹收回万六。当前,尽管全球疫情形势依然严峻,发达国家股市暴跌正令金融风险升温,且原油暴跌可能影响大宗商品定价,但从后疫情阶段国内锌市场基本面出发,并考虑锌市场累计跌幅,我们认为应该开始强调锌价在熊市中具有的价格弹性,适度逢低配置沪锌多单。

  供应过剩主导的熊市仍有交易弹性

  2020nianquanqiuxinjingkuanggongyinggengjiakuansong、jinglianxingongqiupinghengzhuanxiangguosheng,xinshichangjinrushizhileiku,diandinglexinshichangzhangqixiongshi。raner,congzhangqigongqiuchufadejiagequshigengjiajingtai,erzhishaoluodizaizhouweidushangdejiaoyijiezougengjiadongtai。zhangjiuchufa,nianbaozhongwomenzhichujinnianyigongqiujibenmianzhudaodexinjiajinrumanzhangxiongshizhongqi,zheiyijieduankenengchixu2-3nian,erhoucaikenengjinrujiagebiaoxianzuicanliedexiongshiweibu。womenrenwei,lunxinmouyijieduanhenkenengzai1800-2300meiyuanjianfanfu;erhuxinzhishuwomenjichudexiangyingdidianshiwanwu。

  huigu2019nian,zuimingquedeliangbojiaoyishi4-8yuefendequshixingzuokong,yiji9yuefendejijiexingfandan,erdangqianwomenrenweicanyuxinshichangboduanfandandexiyinlijiaoqiang。jishushang,lunxindiepo2000meiyuan,huxinshishouwanliu、xiacuodao1.55wanyixian,yiweizhexinjiakaishijubeijishufandanyoushi。

  可见库存仍在低位

亚游国际游戏官网  jinguanlmexindingkucunjiehoudazengdao7.5wandun,danzheizhishituolilezhiqianjidugangade”diban”shuiping。tongshi,dangqianquanqiu(hanzhongguo)kejiankucunshuipingzai45wandun、2008nian9yueshuiping, yu2016nian6yue、2015nian8yuetongzai2000guankouxiangbi,kucunliangxiangdangyucengjingdeyiban。congzhangqijishutubiaochufa,2010-2015nian,xinjiacengzhangqifanfuzhendangzai1800-2300meiyuanjian,zhenfuhenda,yiweizhexinjiabaohandanxing。

亚游国际游戏官网  lingwai,xinjiazaiyijidukuaisuxiahua,kenengyingxiangxinjingkuangnianneizengchanyuqi。wood mackenziecengbiaoshi1900meiyuan,kenengyiweizhe20%dexinkuangshangongyingweifu;smmrenwei90%quanqiuxinjingkuangchengbenzai1984meiyuan/dun,xinkuangkenengcaiqubeidongchanchucelve。zhengtikan,suiranmeiyoujingkuangjianchan、yanhuantouzidexiaoxi,danjibianjingkuangyanxuyuanyoujiezou,wulunkuangduanhaishijingxinchanpinduan,dangqianshichangdouzhichuzaileikuqianqijieduan,jiageduixiaofeijiezoudedanxingjiaoqiang。

  3月下旬国内波段供求有望迎来拐点

  shangyou,antaikejismmgongbuleguonei2yuejingxinchanchushuju,xianshigezitongjikoujingxiadedanyuejingxinchanchujiao1yuehuanbixiahua6-7wandun。liangjiajigouyuce3yuehuanbichanliangjiangzhuyaoshouziranriyingxiangzengjia1.2-2wandun,neimengmoulianchangshebeiguzhangkenengyingxiang1wandunchanchudixiaolebufenlianchangzengliangyuqi。tongshi,shouxinjiachixuzoudituolei,jingkuangjiagongfeixiaofuxiadiao,dangqianjiagongfeishuipingkaishisunjikuangduan,lianchangyejihunanyicongjizhunjiagefenxiangtiaokuanzhonghuodelirun。

  xiayou,yujiyanxufugongjiezou,congzhongduanlingyukan,womenkanhao“shendunqitiao”houguoneierjidujijiantouzi、fangwujungongjixiangguanchudianxuqiu。benzhouhubeishengchubufenzhongdianquyuwai,yejianghuanmanfugong。lingwai,xuyaohuixiangchunjiexiujiaqian,xinzhongjianchanpinjizhongduanxuqiudequshi,shijiquniansijidushouzhuanxiangzhaifaxing、dingdanhuinuanjifeihuangtongjinkoujianliangdengzhuduoyinsutuidong,xinxiaofeideqiangduchaochuyuqi。yinci,shouyiqingdaluandexiaofeijiezouhenyoukenenghuifuyuanbenqushishangdeguanxing。

  linjin2003heyuejiaoge,changkuxianxinghuadesudujiakuai,jiehoukucunliurudefudubijiaofuheshichangyuqi,suduyezaifangman。zhouyi,ganglianwudijismmqidikucunfenbieshengdao30.39、33.79wandun;ersmm0#xinjiagendiedao15440yuan/dunhou,duijiaogeyueheyueshishishengshuizoukuodao30yuan/dun。yuji3yuexiaxunxinshichangboduangongqiukenengchuxianguaidian,xindingkucunliurukenengtingzhi。

  反弹交易的风险

  womenhaichuzaifengbaozhong。yiqing、youjia、waiweigushibaodiedailaideduijingjizengsu、jinrongfengxiande“fenglang”haiweipingxi。yifangmian,zhongguobujinzhanquanqiuyousejinshuxiaofeizhanbideyiban,haigongxianlezuidadenianduxiaofeizengliang,zheikenengshi“heisexingqiyi”lundunjinshujiagechengzhudezhuyin,jijinshuxiaofeikanzhongguo;danlingyifangmian,waiweiyiqingkuosankenengyingxiangzhongguoyiwaixiaofei。womenhaixuyaogenzongjingtiyiqingduigongyinglianduan、xiaofeiduandeyingxiang。duixinlaishuo,tongjiabiaoxianshizhongyaode“maodian”。congguoneijibenmianjiezouchufa,canyufandanzaidangqianjushixiayou“zuoce”jiaoyidefengxian,tangruofengxiandingjiashengji,lunxinduanqirengyouzhijiexiahuadao1800meiyuan、huxinxiacewanwudekeneng。yinci,zhongshicangliangfengxian、jinzitaxingjinshenjiancangweizhu。





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