亚游国际游戏官网

logo

众赢棋牌下载app

19

weixinhao:pengbojinshuxingqing

top

跌跌不休!有色金属价格何时走出底部?
更新时间:2020-03-12 08:53 来源:宏源期货   浏览次数:3411 | 文字大小:
摘要:当前海外疫情仍在上升期,国内复工逐渐升温,有色盘面如何演绎,价格何时能突破底部?

  zichunjiehou,yousejinshujinglilejiehouguoneiyiqinglikongjizhongshifang、haiwaiyiqingkonghuangbaofa、yuanyoubaodieliandaixiacuosanlunxiadie,tongxindengpinzhongjibendiezhi2017nianyilaidedibuqujian。dangqianhaiwaiyiqingrengzaishangshengqi,guoneifugongzhujianshengwen,yousepanmianruheyanyi,jiageheshinengtupodibu?

  海外疫情未到高峰,但预期已经部分兑现

  自疫情暴发以来,有色盘面主要兑现的是消费的利空预期。以铜为例,春节期间盘面的焦点是国内消费的重挫,伦自6200美元/吨跌至5500美元/吨,节后由于中国疫情防控得力,市场预期回暖,铜价小幅修复,但2月中旬海外疫情逐渐暴发,3月价格战引发原油暴跌,对全球衰退的担忧使得铜价迎来新一轮下挫,伦铜下探至5400美元/吨附近。目前国内防疫进入后半场,海外仍未到峰值,海外疫情会产生怎样的实际影响?我们梳理了中国在有色全球产业链的位置,并试图以国内的疫情影响来推演海外,以期得到对价格的指引。

  在有色金属的全球产业链中,中国扮演重要的消费者角色,各品种占全球金属消费量在40%—60%之间。反观供给,矿产资源相对贫乏,但冶炼产能体量巨大,大部分金属资源处于净进口状态。从供需分配情况来看,六种有色金属可分为三种类型:铜、镍供需匹配情况相似,均属于国内矿产资源贫乏,冶炼产能较大,但仍不能满足消费需求,矿石、中间品和冶炼成品均呈现净进口;铝、、锡矿山资源相对丰富,但仍不能自给自足,需进口原矿来满足冶炼需要,冶炼产能体量较大,基本能够满足国内需求,因而冶炼成品进口需求少;铅的矿产、冶炼产能与消费相对配套,国内供需偏向闭环。

  huiguguoneixinguanfeiyanyiqingduiyousechanyeliandeyingxiang,kecongkuangshan、yelian、jiagongsangehuanjieguancha。bufenkuangshanshouzhiyuwuliu、renyuandengwenti,jiehoufugongnan,chuxianquyuxing、jieduanxingdekuangshiziyuanjinzhang,yinfajiagetaisheng,rujinqiyouyuyuanliaogongyingjinzhangchuxiandeyanghualvjiageshangzhang。yelianhuanjieshoudaoyiqingdezhijieganraobuda,duoshujinshuyelianchangzidonghuashuipinggao,wuxumijidelaodonglicanyu,lirudianjielvshengchanqiye,shengchanjibenweichizhengchangshuiping。danyiqingdailaidewuliubuchangjizhongzaiqushengchanhuodongzantingdewenti,zaochenglebufenxingyefuchanpinjiya,rutong、xinyelianchangdeliusuanzhangku,daobiyelianxingyebeidongjianchan。yiqingduichujixiayou,jijiagongchangdeyingxiangjuda,zheizhuyaoshiyouyuyiqingbaofazaichunjieqianxi,zaiquanguoduiyiqingdeyanfangsishouxia,jiagongchangdejiehoufugongbeiyizaituichi,zheiyezaochenglegeyousepinzhongdafuleikudexianzhuang。

  haiwaiyiqingdezhujiankuosan,duiyousegongjicehuizaochengxianzhuyingxiangma?congxianzhuanglaikan,yousejinshuzhuyaodekuangchandi,runanmei、dongnanyaheaodaliya,shangweichuxianyanzhongdeyiqing,kuangshanshengchanjiaopingwen。riben、hanguo、ouzhouhemeiguoyelianyujiagongchannengxiangduimiji,muqiansuiranbufenguojiayiqingyanzhong,danzhengchangdeshengchanhuodongbingweishoudaomingxianganrao,gongjixiangduipingwen,weilaishifouyouganraofengxian?yuguoneiqingkuangbutongdeshi,haiwaibingmeiyouzhangjiadaduanshengchan,qiehaineiwaidezhengcefengge、wenhuabeijingbutong,qiyeshengchanshoudaoxingzhengxingxianzhidekenengxingbuda。danhaiwaiyiqingdemanyanyeyoubuquedingxing,bufenquyuxingdejiaotongxianzhi,ruyidalidequyufengbi,yijiweilaiqitaguojiakenengchuxiandeleisizhengce,huiganraodaoxingyedemaoyilian。shengchanliantiaobeidaduan,yingxiangshicuozongfuzade,shichangbeigelie,quyujianjiagekenengxingchengjudachayi。zhongguoshuyujinshujingjinkouguo,neixuzaiyiqingkongzhidelixiafandanyuqijiaoqiang,haiwaiyuanliaogongjiruochuxianganrao,duineipanjiagehuoyouqianzaideliduoyingxiang。

  zaikanyiqingduixiaofeideyingxiang,wulunshiguoneihuohaiwai,shichangdeyuqiyizhixingpiankong。yiqingduiguoneixiaofeidelikongzai2yuedebufenjingjishujushangyijingtixian,xianjieduanxiayoujinluomigudikaizhanfugong,shichanggengduodishiduixuqiubuchangxingfandandeyuqi。fanguanhaiwai,yiqingduixiaofeideshijilikonghaimeiyoumingxiantixian,geguozuizhonghuicaiquhezhongzhengce,yijiduishehuishengchan、shenghuozaochenghezhongyingxiang,shijuedingyiqingshijiyingxiangdeguanjianyinsu。danxiangduiquedingdeshi,dangqianjinshiyuqideqingkuangxia,xiaofeidebeiguanzaipanmianshangyiyouduixian,haiwaichuxianxindebianliangzhiqian,muqiandebeiguanyuqibuzuyizaochengyousejiagediechuxindi。

  国内复工脚步加快,库存拐点还需等待

亚游国际游戏官网  2yuezhongxiaxunkaishi,guoneifugongjinluomigudikaizhan,3yueyilaijiaobujinyibujiakuai。conggaopinshujuzhongguanchadao,liudadianchangderijunhaomeilianghuifuzhijieqian70%yishang,quanguoqianxirenyuanguimomingxianxiangshangxiufu,zhuyaochengshideyongduzhishuchixuzougao。congyousejinshudexianhuoshichangguancha,suiranchengjiaozhengtirengranpiandan,danxianhuotieshuifudumingxianshouzhai,bufenpinzhongyijingzhuanweishengshui,xiayouxuqiuyousuoxiufu。

  shouyiqingyingxiang,yousejinshudejijiexingleikushijianbeiyanzhang,qieleikufudumingxianjiada,muqiankucunfengzhibingweichuxian。yiwangniandeleikuzhouqilaituiduan,tonglvxindekucundingdianduozaijiehoudiliuzhoufujinchuxian,jinnianxiayoufugongbeiyanzhangliangzhouyishang,qieqianqifugonghouchannengliyonglvyejiaodi,muqianyishijiehoudiqizhou,helituiceleikuzhouqihaijiangyanxu1—2zhou,kucunkenengzai3yuezhongxiaxunjianding。

  erjidulilaiweigongyehuodongwangji,youqishidichan、jiadiandengyousemijixiaofeidelingyu。jinnianweiduichongyiqingdefumianyingxiang,zhengceduizhuanxiangzhaihejijiantouzidezhichilidujiada,1.29 wanyidifangzhuanxiangzhaixianeyijingtiqianxiafa,jijianfalidexiaoguoyujijiangchuxianqianzhi。congneixulaikan,yousejinshuyouqishitonglvxin,erjidudexuqiuhuanbiyujiyouxianzhufandan,kucunguaidianchuxianhou,qukusuduhuochaoguowangnian。

  价格向下的弹性有限,把握阶段性节奏

亚游国际游戏官网  kaolvdaohaiwaiyiqingdebeiguanyuqiyijingbufenduixian,waibubuzaiduchuxianheitianedeqingkuangxia,jinshujiagediezhi2017nianyilaidedibuhou,duanqixiangxiadedanxingjiaoxiao。duitongeryan,kuangduanzengliangyouxianzhiyuegongjishifang,dilirundeyelianxingyeyouyunyingfengxian,lvdejiagebijinxingyechengbenxian,xinsuizaixiongshizhouqizhong,danjinglijidiezhihou,chengbenzhiyuehekuangshanchannengchuqinghuanman,shidejiagenanyiyibudaoweishididiedaodibu。dangqianhaiwaiyiqingrengzaishangshengqi,guoneixiaofeidelihaoyuqishangweiduixian,youseduanqinanyichuxianqushixingshangxing,danxiafangdanxingjiaoxiaodeqingkuangxia,zhuikongxingjiabibugao,huoxugengyoudexuanzeshikaolvjiagejieduanxingxiangshangdedanxing,guanzhuoumeiyiqingyanbianheguoneikucunguaidianjiyudezhiyin。





热门关键词:锌矿,智利铜矿,有色金属,铜矿,铅矿,锡矿,铝土矿,镍矿,沪铝,沪镍,沪铜,,沪锌,,,沪铅,,,

相关资讯

中金网服务导航

关注我们:

今天广西快3开奖情况

  • 全国服务热线:4008-602-168
  • 电话总机:
  • 会员专线:

  • 广告专线:

交行2020奥斯卡竞猜

今天排列五开的什么号码

今日竞彩足球预测唯彩看球

今天河南快三跨度走势图

今天彩票什么号能中奖

点击这里给我发消息

仁信的彩选择它

3g.nxyx586.cn

五张牌牛牛玩法

微信号:metalsinfo

优惠版95彩

微信号:mi818_com

五个人打的扑克叫什么 互联网彩票能开通吗 互联网彩票最新新闻 五串一容错一场奖金怎么算 五人斗地主规则三副牌 互联网彩票最新消息2020 互联网彩票解禁提案 互联网销售彩票行为 五万怎么投资理财 五个数字的彩票叫什么